One of a score to be insufficient to generate a dynamic

Four months almost day to day of the first round of regional elections, the right has the desire to be. Past master in the art of turning failures into success and victories in triumphs, Nicolas Sarkozy has tried these last months to reassure its camp in touting the good results of the UMP, first at the European election of June and then in several by-elections.

In fact, the scores of the Elysée to suggest that the UMP in these elections at risk is better than the parties of the majority in the previous presidential terms. The Union for a popular movement have thus won, since June 2007, a little more intermediate, local or national elections than the left: 87 against 85. Overexploited, the recent election of ex-judoka David Douillet to Poissy would confirm the capacity of resilience of the majority. New Member of Poissy is the oak that hides a pine forest. Because the right addresses the more fragile the regional campaign electorally that it has never been for two years and a half.

In four months, including a few weeks of active campaign, the State of opinion will change naturally and the precedent of the European showed that it could evolve rapidly and substantially. It would be premature to issue less prognosis on the outcome of the upcoming regional elections. Moreover, most pollsters to keep, at this stage, measure voting intentions at the national level. At the request of the parties themselves, they emit the moment that first round regions trends.

There is not less than today ' hui right no longer has the advantage that she left at the next European elections. Not that its electoral potential was much melted in a few months. In the light of their surveys in areas, several institutes put all UMP - new Centre in a range from 25 to 30, consistent with the obtained 28 in June - few possible massive abstention of voters to the European to properly interpret the results. In contrast with the collapse of the Socialist Party, first place at by the Party of the President in this election in a round was enough to forget, a time, that it is, in fact, during periods of low water.

The comparison with the level of the previous regional elections right illuminates both its current fragility and the fact that this election is more negative. The moderate right brought together 38 of the vote in 1992, 35.5 in 1998 and 34 in 2004. Even at this level, and with a national Front to 16, the latest edition turned to it in the rout. Half less strong now, the FN do more in a position to play spoiler in the second round, but this deletion was not enough to prevent the defeat of the moderate to the municipal right. On paper, repeat regions to the left with a lower electoral potential six years ago would be the exploit.

In this context, the strategy of gathering on the first defended tooth and nail by Nicolas Sarkozy could prove counterproductive. It is based on the created effect, between the two towers, by the high score the candidate or the list of union of the right... If this choice has often been validated since 2007, he can return in two cases. One of a score to be insufficient to generate a dynamic. And in areas, such as the Ile-de-France for example, where a centrist electorate embodied by a personality ancient and legitimate can expand the rake in the first round and promote the reports of the second voice.

Even if this strategy brought an end to the divisions of the right, always punished, it has the disadvantage of no longer suffice to open its electoral capital. Pollsters find, the electorate of the UMP is tightening around its core hard sarkozyste. The right étroitise. "Nicolas Sarkozy has stifled the Galaxy of the lines," summarizes nicely Francois Miquet-Marty, Deputy Director General of Viavoice. This part of the electorate that the UMP must conquer for hope to prevail, note to BVA crumbles. However, "If the lines are to become majority, they will have to mobilize, massively gather their camp, attract a significant portion of the electors of the Modem in the decisive round and seduce a significant fringe of voters tempted by the issues of ecology and sustainable development", noted political analyst Pascal Perrineau in an analysis published by the Foundation for political innovation.

In this little favourable configuration, the UMP has however a chance, having only two regions to lose, to be satisfied with the reconquest of one or few. And to rely on Nicolas Sarkozy to transform again defeat in success. Surprising reversal. Long right, majority votes, won the elections but divided, lost the elections. Since 2007, she lost the elections but won the elections.