Vision however firmly rejected by the Insee

The French economy faces an unfavourable context. "Even in international crisis, economists of the national Institute of statistics and economic studies does not calm forget. Forecasts updated growth this year, published this morning by the Insee are talking: after having declined by 0.3 in the second quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) to transfer 0.1 in the third and then in the fourth quarter. Euro area, GDP forecast again in the third quarter ( 0.1 after 0.2 in the second) and would stabilize at the end of the year. In 1993, last year of negative growth in France, the GDP had declined as two quarters of affiliates but in a deeper way.

"A Word so heavy."

Characterized by two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the recession would come, according to the usual definition, invite in France. Vision however firmly rejected by the Insee. "It is a Word so heavy that it seems to us premature use it." "We will not take in any case not the responsibility to use the term", explains Eric Dubois, head of the Department of the conditions in the Insee, which States that there are alternative definitions.

At Bercy, the idea is less taboo. "We are not going to fight for words, is it in the entourage of Christine Lagarde.". The important this is the background situation and no indicator now shows improvement.

Under the strong activity in 2007 and early 2008, the GDP should still have increased on average by 0.9 this year (read here), but the momentum is broken for 2009 and hope make only 1 growth next year will require a strong recovery. On all fronts, the second half of 2008 in fact endorses a worsening of the situation. As would in the first half, the household incomes decline, but under the impact, this time, a net degradation of employment (see opposite). In disagreement with the Government, the Insee estimated that more than 100,000 jobs will be lost the next six months in the market sector. The consumption of households, their investment in housing and business investment would fall them also down this semester. Imports and exports would remain, they virtually stable.

New uncertainties

The already dark scenario of the Insee is yet built on the assumption of a net flow of oil and food, inflation that would limit the price increases to 2.4 at the end of the year on a year (after 3.6 in late July) and a decrease in the rate of household savings and lisseraient their consumption. A deterioration of the financial crisis could encourage them to strengthen their savings. "After the course of oil and the euro, the factors of uncertainty in the months to come have changed, indicates in the entourage of the Minister of the economy." It is mainly for the duration of the financial crisis that will now depend on the impact on the economy. "And the responses of Governments. If the announcement of measures for SMEs or housing could, according to Insee, play positively on activity, the magnitude is, at this point, difficult to measure.