It is still very early to make a final judgment

March 20, 2003, President George w. Bush decided to invade the Iraq to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein. Seven years later, the consequences of this war, unilaterally without the green light from the United Nations, give rise to conflicting readings.

The first is to conclude that "the American mission has been accomplished successfully", as had in fact proclaimed it, very prematurely, President Bush as early as may 2003.

The balance sheet is not, at first glance, insignificant. The deposed dictator was hanged - in controversial conditions - and ancient Mesopotamia saw new politicians take power, not by the force of arms, but through the ballot box. Democracy is, therefore, in motion. March 7, 2010, the Iraqis, with a new Constitution, voted to choose deputies and it for the second time in the history of post-Saddam. Some experts even spoke of "drunkenness of democracy" to describe the high rate of participation, about two thirds of registrants, and this despite the attacks and threats against the vote.

In addition, the spectre of the civil war of 2006 and 2007 between Shia and Sunni, militias moved away and "surge", the sending of additional US troops decided in 2007 before the end of Bush's term, has yielded results beyond even what was hoped. The number of Iraqi civilians killed by the conflict, which in 2006 exceeded the 34,000 and 23,000 in 2007 fell less than 3,000 last year. And Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia, which had benefited from the fall of Saddam and the chaos of the after-2003, failed to locate. It seems likely that the US Army reached to withdraw by the end of 2011, leaving the Iraqi security forces gradually take over.

In addition, economically, the very difficult situation, provides nevertheless signs of stabilization. In approving a loan of $ 3.6 billion in early March, the international monetary fund said it assumed economic growth running at 8 per year over the next years, after to be slowed to 4, in 2009, according to the relief of oil prices. What is relatively satisfactory.

But the other reading of the war in Iraq, much less angelic. The first consequence of the intervention is to have aggravated the imbalances of the post-cold war helping to lose the undisputed supremacy of the United States in the world. America has shown that its military power had also limits. In addition, the project of neo-conservatives to the Iraq an example to the rest of the Middle East is part of distant memories and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is far from being resolved.

The other major consequence is a dangerous paradox. Finally, the Shiite Iran was the major beneficiary of subversion by the Americans of the Ba'athist regime in Baghdad who was the traditional enemy. In addition, President Ahmadinejad and the mullahs regime can use threat to the American presence on its borders to pursue its nuclear program which is difficult to doubt that it is for military purposes.

Forcing America, even withdrawing militarily Iraq, remain nonetheless present in the region, likely in there now military advisers today.

Despite the stabilization of the past months, the situation in Iraq remains extremely fragile. One of the think tanks in Washington, the Stimson Center, recently estimated that there were some 5 million displaced Iraqis, on a population of less than 30 million, including more than 2 million who are exiled. "One of the less known, and yet very revealing of the Iraq of today reality is the virtual disappearance of the more educated middle classes," said the research centre. A movement which had certainly begun under Saddam Hussein but which is amplified after 2003.

In addition, the tensions in the "border" between the Kurdistan, that since the arrival of the Americans strengthened its autonomy, and the territories "disputed" (ranging from Nineveh province of Diyala) remain strong. The Kir-kouk, oil city which houses Kurds and other minorities, Arab and Turkmen, is thus always a question explosive.

Finally, the current Prime Minister, Nouri Al-Maliki and his rival Iyad Allawi, his predecessor, are vying for the result of the vote. That boded ill for the formation of the next Government. Some fear that an authoritarian drift of power is necessary to maintain the unity of the Iraq after the American intervention.

It is still very early to make a final judgment. But American intervention leaves a sense of unfinished. The trial of Saddam Hussein is also sheds light on the abuses of his dictatorship. Beyond lies on the existence of the development of weapons of mass destruction program, the number of dead, more than 110,000 Iraqi civilian, represents a heavy balance sheet. Not to mention the mistakes of the U.S. Army as the Abu Ghraib prison.

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