Also it is still too early to start partying

In the hollow of the summer and a stronger cyclical recovery phase than expected, the Germany lives a new controversy on its wage policy. One of the economists the most prominent, Peter Bofinger, lit the fuse by estimating that an increase of 3 of the wages would be appropriate. According to this close to the unions, Member of the Committee of five independent experts advising the Government, such adjustment would also boost sluggish consumption. In addition, it would foster a rebalancing of economies, those taking advantage of a stream of imports of the first euro-zone economy. Unions drink the whey and are calling on their side to the loyalty of the business world. Wage moderation in recent years has led to a "miracle" on the labour market, which was especially expressed during the recession last year. With the return of growth and the juicy profit, employees have the right to a removal of Elevator, argue today several Union leaders.

Yesterday, the head of the industry's most powerful Union of Germany steel, IG Metall, stated in the press that he wanted to impose on employers of significant wage increases in the next negotiations this fall. They are going to be 85,000 employees, including 77.000 are unionized.

Worried bosses

Side business, it said already concerned about claims wind starts to blow. Dieter Hundt, the boss of bosses, recalled that "recovery is made almost exclusively by the growth of exports", while "domestic demand remains weak." Also, "it is still too early to start partying". The question is whether if ballast can be dropped while the country has crossed in 2009 a black year with GDP falling by 4.9. It was also a hiatus after a decade having seen salary costs and productivity grow at the same pitch. In 2009, the decrease in industrial production, often more than 15, has no or almost no destroys employment, it has maintained with wide use of partial unemployment. The result is productivity losses leading to a higher labour unit costs. After near stagnation the past three in the decade 2000-2008, they soared last year averaged 5.5 and 15.6 in the industry. "This means that an increase in productivity is necessary this year to return to normality." "If it is distributed in wages, we risk sustainable increases in unit costs and a loss of competitiveness and employment", prevents Rolf Kroker, Chief Economist of the IW Institute, close to the employers.

An increase in wages would have the rest little effect on the consumer, whose level reacts particularly at the level of employment, also argues the Economist of the IW: "If we want to strengthen the household consumption, should first conduct a wage policy promoting employment." The President of the Council of wise men, Wolfgang Franz, he takes his distance with Peter Bofinger, calling "not breaking the success on the market of labour with the wage moderation and structural reforms."

A moderation which has even played this year, when IG Metall created the surprise by focusing on the maintenance of employment for some 3 million employees in the metal and electrical industry. The Union agreed to a salary freeze for 2010, against a single premium of 320 euros, and an increase of 2.7 in April 2011. Negotiations in 2012 may however go on many other bases. For their part, several railway unions will enter into negotiations in calling for 5-6 of salary increases.