2 billion this year on the basis of oil at 113

Never late to a braggadocio, Michael O'Leary, the founder of Ryanair, secured yet with aplomb in June: "the oil soon drops below 100 dollars." Less than a month later, on 11 July, bbl of crude passes the bar of 147 dollars, a record. That is, if, on 28 July, at the time to present its first-half results, man has lost his superb. "The current price is not sustainable in the medium term, but Ryanair is not known when it goes down," he says in a release. That day, his company has just announced a drop of 85 of its net profit for the first quarter despite an increase of 12 of its turnover. In issue, the increase in the price of fuel, which now represents 50 of the operating costs of the company, against only 36 last year. Balance for Ryanair: accounts that probably Veer in the Red this year. The beginning of the end for the "low cost"

The millions of passengers who have flown this summer were able to measure the fragility of a concept that thought yet permanently installed in the landscape. Presented as temporary when its first implemented in 2004, "fuel overload", which is nothing else that a contribution of customers to the increase in operating costs, is institutionalized in the regular companies. For some economic notes, it is not uncommon that it now represents half of the invoice. Well managed, the head of a comfortable cash, Ryanair, as rival EasyJet, has so far then withstood any idea to overtax his tickets. To cope with soaring oil, two rivals of the sky at a discount are relying on a fleet young therefore, efficient and to a policy of volume. Ryanair has also strong coverage of its fuel risk allowing it to depreciate without much case a barrel to $ 124 for the third quarter. But beyond

Beyond, as all patterns of air transport, of Ryanair can only rely on the omens, which the omens announce sustainable deceleration of oil prices in the coming months. On paper, everything seems to be driving. This summer, Saudi Arabia has increased its production. At the same time, demand declined in the OECD countries and it slows in emerging nations. Result: since the beginning of this week, the barrel returned to a more reasonable flow, about 108 euros. But, even in the best of cases, it is highly likely found immediately after a $ 70 oil, its level of a year ago!

Companies well understood, who have abruptly had to adapt their strategy. It is true that within twelve months, fuel became their first item, with an overall invoice of 176 billion dollars for a barrel to $ 106. To give an idea of the brutality of the shock, just remember that in 2002, the addition amounted to $ 40 billion. According to Iata (the international air transport Association), global air transport should register a loss of $ 5.2 billion this year on the basis of oil at $ 113. And in this situation, the only cost reduction measures are now powerless.

The phenomenon is particularly in the United States. So far, the Continental, United and other Northwest Airlines were able to stem the increase in fuel in opposing savings measures. Since 2004, the average price of the ticket had risen only 8 in the United States, while over the same period, the oil was multiplied by four. But today, the dikes burst open. Despite more than 60,000 job losses programmed in 2008, the U.S. carriers must still without an increase in tariffs, if they want to survive. In a note published in the spring, Credit Switzerland provided an increase between 15 and 25 for tickets issued by the companies, if they want to remain profitable in a barrel to $ 124.

In this troubled context, "low cost" companies are in the front line. Giovanni Bisignani, Iata Director-General, said last June that the fuel station weighs more heavy in their accounts than in those of the carrier classic since they refuse for the moment to implement a fuel surcharge. Yield to that temptation would indeed abandon economic development based on profitability by volume with ultra-concurrentiels prices. For the time being, low-cost companies are large back and reduce their capacity to adapt to a declining demand. Southwest Airlines has decided to reduce its flights by 6 from next year. Meanwhile, Ryanair will land aircraft this winter in Dublin and Stansted airports. A scarcity of supply which can only contribute to the escalation of the price of the ticket.

As much as another phenomenon, longer term, is likely to fuel rising: it is the lack of aircraft in the world. Delays by the Airbus A380 comes to announce a new time of several weeks for the delivery of its first aircraft Emirates and those of the Dreamliner 787 from Boeing, seriously destabilize the carriers. For the summer period, the lack of seats was estimated to be 200,000 every day, which increased the pressure on prices. More seriously, every delay in the delivery of these appliances back when companies may finally see their energy bill shrink. With a consumption of less than 3 litres per 100 kilometres per passenger, the A380, the A350 or the B787 are the only strategic response to an oil sustainably expensive. Although it has one of the most modern fleets in the world, Air-France KLM still displays an average consumption of 3.95 litres. Even if the desire of Michael O'Leary, of oil below $ 100, is fulfilled in the coming days, the decline in prices is no longer current in air transport.