More reason to focus on the quality of the index

The case dates back to last spring. In April, the National Federation of real estate (Fnaim) publish its monthly index of former estate. It is... a 3 price increase. It is the General stupor. In crisis and that, in the fall of 2008, the Organization has taken note of embellished General per square metre, this sudden decline does not convince anyone. Since this episode, critics swell. With, always, the same trial: the Federation, which is before all a professional Union of some real estate agencies, is systematically charged to serve as his only commercial interest, minimizing declines or maximizing price increases. The graph on the left has indicate that, on the duration, notaries are more significant increases that those announced by the Fnaim, nothing. Doubt is widely installed, and figures released each month - the "Observatory" released yesterday announced a decline in prices in the former of 1.2 for the month of August - are analyzed with the greatest caution. The debate now on the relevance of the statistics of the Federation.

The problem is not new. "Before my departure from the Federation, in autumn 2006, I had several times sounded the alarm before the fall, some months, the number of data", said the Professor of Economics at the University of Paris X-Nanterre Michel Mouillart, the former scientific bail that had implemented the statistical tool of the Fnaim. The controversy re-emerged this year with the dismissal in June of the number two of the Federation, General delegate, Henry Buzy-Cazaux. The question of figures, once, is in the foreground. "I was thanked for substantive reasons and, among these, the weakness of the statistical apparatus of the Fnaim", explains that refused to endorse 3 in April. "Fault of sufficient references, Observatory lack of strength and have him say anything", regretted the former General delegate.

Roll-over period

It is that the nature of the statistics of the Fnaim makes them highly sensitive in times of crisis. Its indicators, published a few days after the end of each month or each quarter, are the only to account for the price of the market in the former as quickly. In this period of reversal, they are therefore examined with the greatest attention. More reason to focus on the quality of the index. Appreciate it, to verify the mode of calculation but also and especially its feeding mode. Even index notaries-Insee, but considered the most reliable in the market, does not encompass the entire sales made (see our article "the figures of the notaries are not exhaustive", on ). Fnaim, it is another story. Exclude from immediately to his control all transactions (40 to 50) from individual to individual, but also those carried out by the real estate agencies adherent and same - known less - those conducted by member agencies but that do not sentencing him back the information.

On the 1,200 agencies Orpi, for example, the first network of France, 40 about joining the Fnaim, according to its President, Bernard Cadeau, but among them, all do not respond to requests for information of the Federation. Currently, Russia claims 8,000 adherent, but of this total, only real estate agencies "2,000 are classified as part of a regular diet necessary to produce statistics," admits Nicolas Thouvenin, delegated Deputy General of the Fnaim. Result, helping the crisis, the Federation is formally passed 12,000 monthly references below 6,000 in recent months, "this decline is challenging not the reliability of the index", according to Nicolas Thouvenin. "The statistical rigor necessary that an indicator is representative of 5 of the studied target to be significant." "And on a volume of 500,000 transactions, estimated by the notaries for 2009, Fnaim data representing 12 of the market," he says. The situation would be much more concern according to Henry Buzy - Cazaux, who advanced the figure of "4,000 references per month and that, since almost two years.

This does not necessarily mean that the trends identified by the Fnaim are false, but that their representativeness is declining. Nothing to worry about, to condition, taking into account the scope of these figures for the whole of the market players mentioned expressly at the time of their publication. What has been done to the tip of the lips and late. The tension was palpable in the last press conference of the Federation, in July. It is on that date for the announcement of the June index that the Fnaim reviews for the first time the number of references to the decline ("of approximately 5,000 to 10,000 sales", can be read in its monthly Observatory). Until then, it was a sample of transactions "of about 10,000 to 12.500 sales."

The limits of volunteering

Unreliable, Fnaim To put an end to the controversy, the Federation has produced a note defending his statistical method. It puts especially forward "the originality of the Professional files: feeding is not subject to the constraints of volunteering, the first weakness recognized an Observatory, but to business objectives".In fact, it appears however that the database of the Fnaim is fed... that by volunteering. If real estate signs such as Century 21, for example, actually bring up figures on very reliable selling prices to their parent, it is because they are statutorily obliged to calculate the commission of the franchisor. But the Fnaim, it is not "plugged" on these internal programs. At the time, to provide the information requested, each estate agency must use the software of the Fnaim, which is generally duplicative with those already established in its network.

Once a sale is complete and its own powered base, what interest is a real estate agent to inform the base of the Fnaim Professional Union, the Federation has no means of control over the practice of real estate agents, not more that it has the legal means to force them to fill its base. His only weapon The incentive. "Real estate agents are a commercial interest: using the software of the Fnaim, their classified ads are free of charge listed on the fnaim.fr site, which brings together 550,000 references.". Once the sale is conducted, they have no interest in leaving the announcement in the State. "They must remove it and it is at that time, the sale price asked," argues Nicolas Thouvenin. Most virtuous respond effectively, others are simply announcement... to the Recycle Bin.

A loss of speed website

The Federation considers alternatives to collect the necessary data, such as the implementation of gateways between different software. It is all the more urgent with the Internet gives revolution has changed. While in the beautiful hours of Minitel 3615 fnaim server was one of the undisputed leaders of the market, the fnaim.fr site is now stalled. In may, for example, it appeared in 13th position, at 490.000 visitors (source Médiamétrie), far behind Seloger, in particular to individual or AvendreAlouer, which totalled respectively 2.8 million, 1.8 million and 1.5 million visitors...

"We we are the first on the trends that print market, it is not always easy. I remember it trends, at any time we have the claim to say prices. "Data are aggregated and are not, by nature, value of expertise - it is the role of the real estate agent to estimate the value of a property given in its market", says René Pallincourt, Fnaim President. In any case, before the now recurring criticisms concerning the reliability of its figures, Fnaim promised, in July, to shed light on its methods of calculating the re-entry. We're there.