Economists are perhaps a little as physicians

In these times of global crisis, economists do not have the rating. Their alleged to not have foreseen the woes of the financial system international or, worse, to have played a role. How give credibility to the requirements of the economists for out of the crisis since they were not able to predict the near-collapse of the banking system and marchés of assets Should we not escape totally current economic theories and start from scratch At the risk of exposing me to the mob, I think that our central bankers, for the moment, acted as a hero. Of course, it is still too early to declare victory. But they have managed the amazing feat of saving the international financial system and, hence, they avoided annihilation of the world economy. We face a serious crisis, but it did not, for the moment - remain cautious-, turned into a great depression as dans the 1930s.

These heroes of modern times have been supported to varying degrees in different countries by the tax authorities. And all, central bankers and budgetary authorities, followed, in their measures against the crisis, the good old precepts of economic theory. They diagnosed the seriousness of the problem, try to understand the mechanisms of transmission of the crisis in real time. They invented processes to stabilize the banking system in a period where any misstep was sanctioned by stampedes and a massive loss of liquidity. They dropped interest rates quickly so they could do so, i.e. up to zero. They have then not hesitated to adopt a non-conventional policy of massive expansion of the monetary mass visant to restore liquidity in asset markets. The problems of application of these measures have been resolved in record time.

In other words, central bankers have been good economists. What they have seen in real time were dictated by economic theory and logic and they were extraordinary because macroeconomic circumstances were also. In recent history, only the Japan in the 1990s had been exposed to a comparable macroeconomic situation. Ben Bernanke, President Obama intends to renew at the head of the US Federal Reserve, was Professor of Economics at Princeton before joining the Fed. There is no doubt that his academic research past, which includes important studies on the role of the banking system in the spread of the great depression and the more theoretical studies on the relationship between financial system and economic activity, was in his thoughts at the critical moment of decision. Economists therefore seem to be very useful in times of crisis.

But then, why did they not provided the crisis To make the economy, is not to make predictions. May be asked to economists forecasts of course, but economists say invariably - or should say - that their prediction is dependent on their model, which is a simplified representation of a real system infinitely complex. Many economists had seen that the real estate market in the United States was a gigantic bubble. For example, Bob Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale, had sent warning on warning. But nobody has really could predict when this bubble would erupt. Because, this should be able to understand the psychology of investors, the exact mechanisms of transmission of information or perhaps to predict political events, or even the weather. He should also know take into account the effect of the actions of some investors on the actions of others. The economic reality is far too complex to be foreseeable with precision. Economists are perhaps a little as physicians. Who would think to blame the latter for not having predicted the outbreak of swine flu a year ago And yet, that would be not happy to have a doctor available if he catches him In any case, in economics as in medicine, he will have to deal with prevention.