A more difficult to hold for the policy speech

He was one of the major themes of the campaign for the presidential election of 2007 and will be again in 2012. Is purchasing power a return in force in the political debate. And because, caught in a vise between salaries increase little and prices soar energy products, he became the first concern of the French, before even unemployment. More than half (54) expect that their purchasing power decline in the coming months, says a recent survey of Viavoice ("Les Echos" from April 1).

After the failure of the UMP in the cantonal and one year of the presidential, Nicolas Sarkozy returned for several weeks in this field. But its margins for manoeuvre are low: the priority remains to the debt reduction under the careful eye of markets. Result, it cannot, as in 2007 and 2008, multiply the laws for the purchasing power (exemption of overtime, real property interests, the incentive tax credit, etc.). The Executive therefore favors sector listings: implementation rates social (Telecom, Internet), supervision of prices of energy (freezing of the price of gas, Cap of electricity, tax deductions for motorists), creation of a basket of food products in the distribution.

Spending in context constraints, Alexander resumed, the Government seeks to do not curb consumption engine trying to curb the cost Food accounts for approximately 16 of the energy represents the order of 8. "The increase in the price of these recurring purchases has a strong psychological scope," says Alexander Law.

Floating TIPP, check transportation, prime in the tub... for years, each Government makes its policy responses to forestall the outbreak of the energy. But the economic impact is often little probative value. The rehabilitation of the kilometre fee schedule will be this time still a limited impact. 5 Million potential taxpayers to benefit, gain will be focused on professionals which are many. If the freezing of the price of gas is more unifying, "occurs after an increase of more than 20 over a year", said Alain Bazot, President of the UFC - that choose, that "the State doesn't have to role of pricing but strengthen the competitive framework in some sectors such as energy, food or telecoms."

If these measures are likely to somewhat reassure households, they will not solve the overall problem of purchasing power, first related to income. "The real problem is the lack of dynamism of growth that does not clear improvement in the market of work and which does not encourage companies to increase wages", said Alexander Law. Where the will of Nicolas Sarkozy to force companies that increase dividends to pay bonuses to employees (see below). But, again, flexibility is low since the evolution of wages depends above all on productivity. The moving slow, economists do not expect a strong dynamics of incomes in the coming years, except to cause a cycle wage-inflation. For Robert Rochefort (read below), the French must understand that purchasing power will not be able to advance as before (even at the height of the crisis, it has been very dynamic stimulus measures and the damper of social benefits). A more difficult to hold for the policy speech.