A few weeks of his entry into the European Union, the Poland lives a political crisis whose outcome is uncertain. Suspected of corruption, dropped by public opinion and a large fringe of his own party, to be split, the SLD (Social Democratic Party, Communist), the Prime Minister, Leszec Miller, will relinquish his post on 2 may, the day after membership. Marek Belka, Minister of Finance of a previous Government of Miller, is the candidate chosen by President Kwasniewski to succeed him. Returned today to Iraq, it will commit to build a program to gather the support of a majority of members. It will take even the votes of two thirds of the members of the diet (lower house) to validate his Government. Nothing less safe, because the SLD is minority in Parliament since the defection of his ally, the peasant party (PSL), a year ago. Marek Belka will be hard to convince the opposition to continue the reforms undertaken by the Miller Government. The bulk of the work in progress on the reform of the system of pensions and social, very expensive for the State budget, expensive and protection especially eventful anomalies and problems inherited from the Communist era. The Hausner plan, the name of the Minister of the economy, employment and labour, has 30 of "streamlining of public finance" bills 2004-2007 (it is about 12 billion euros), but parliamentary debate every time requires the Minister to amend its text, or even to empty them of their substance. The displayed purpose is to bring the Polish budget deficit under 3 fateful bar, and the Polish debt below the 60 of GDP.
A heterogeneous opposition
According to his first statements, Marek Belka would support the Hausner plan, strongly criticized by the opposition, and would allow the Minister in his future Government. Even the Union of labour, small party that submitted the last few months the Miller Government, yesterday put his conditions: he wants to add a social component to the Hausner plan and application at the same time the Government to "withdraw the Polish Army of Iraq by the end of the year".
Today's most opposition parties demand new election, that they are in a position to win even if they are not, overall, common strategy. Leading in the polls, with 28 of the vote, "civic platform", (PO, liberal) is a very different policy from that of the SLD. But it has for alloy than the law and Justice (PIS) party, more conservative and more sovereignist (third, 11), with which it will not be a majority. The only other possible partners are the extreme-right, populist and antieuropĂŠenne, Samoobrona (self-defense) to Andrzej Lepper and the League of Polish families (LPR), nationalist (9) and ultracatholique (credited with 21 of the vote). If the next democratic Government cannot re-consolidate the country around a common project, the elections will be the only possible outcome for President Kwasniewski. This fall or the spring of 2005, taking advantage of the June elections to the European Parliament where the Poland will send 54 members. However, the vicissitudes of the young Polish democracy should not have negative impact on Europe in the short term. Since the "dropping" of the Spain and the Madrid bombings, the majority of the Polish political class is resigned to join the general opinion and accept the European Constitution. Longer term, however, if the Eurosceptic right came to power, it would be quite different.